Introduction

As Indian markets prepare to open on September 25, 2024, investors are closely monitoring global cues, technical analysis, and stock-specific developments. With a slight dip in GIFT Nifty and mixed signals from global indices, today’s session is expected to bring some volatility. In this article, we delve into key factors that may shape the trading day ahead, providing investors with actionable insights into market trends, sector performance, and stock movements.

Global and Indian Market Overview

Global Indices Performance

• Dow Jones closed higher by +0.20%, adding 83.57 points to reach 42,208.22.
• Nasdaq advanced by 0.56%, driven by gains in mining stocks due to China’s stimulus measures.
• S&P 500 added 0.25%, reflecting optimism across the broader market.
• Hang Seng surged +2.32%, buoyed by positive sentiment in Asian markets.
• FTSE 100 saw a modest increase of 0.28%, indicating a steady performance in the European markets.

In contrast, Indian markets ended flat on September 24, with Sensex dipping by 14.57 points to settle at 84,914.04, while Nifty 50 edged up by 1.35 points, closing at 25,940.40. The mixed performance in Asian markets and the US is likely to set a cautious tone for Indian indices today.

Key Commodities and Currency Movements

• Crude Oil remained steady as concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased.
• Dollar Index hit a one-year low, while Asian currencies strengthened, led by the Malaysian Ringgit.
• Key metals such as Zinc, Aluminium, and Copper traded higher, signaling increased demand.

These trends may impact commodity-driven stocks such as Tata Steel, Vedanta, and Hindalco, which have already seen a positive run.

Market Sentiment: Bullish and Bearish Indicators

Technical Analysis of Nifty 50

The Nifty 50 index touched a record high of 26,011 before closing at 25,940.40. After a remarkable rally that saw the index gain over 1,000 points in the last nine sessions, investors can expect some consolidation in the short term.

• Support levels are established between 25,750 and 25,700.
• Resistance is seen at 26,000, with a potential upside target of 26,200 if the market breaks above this level.
• A minor dip or consolidation phase is possible today, with strong support likely to hold the index above 25,800.

Bank Nifty: End of the Winning Streak?

After a remarkable eight-day rally, Bank Nifty closed lower by 137.20 points, ending the streak with a loss of 0.25%, settling at 53,968.60. However, the index gained over 3,000 points during this series and is expected to stay resilient in the medium term.

• Resistance levels for Bank Nifty are seen at 54,171, 54,252, and 54,883 (Fibonacci retracement).
• Support lies between 53,697 and 53,167, providing some cushion for potential downside risks.
• A Tweezer Top pattern has formed, indicating a possible bearish reversal, though confirmation is awaited.

Call and Put Options Data for Nifty

Call Options: Key Resistance Levels

• Maximum open interest is seen at the 27,000 strike (with 1.31 crore contracts), making it a significant resistance level for Nifty.
• Maximum call writing occurred at the 26,000 strike (15.47 lakh contracts), followed by 27,000 and 26,300 strikes.

Put Options: Strong Support Levels

• Maximum open interest for put options is observed at the 25,000 strike (1.07 crore contracts), acting as strong support.
• Put writing is the highest at the 25,900 strike (21.21 lakh contracts), followed by 26,000 and 26,100 strikes.

These data points indicate that Nifty is poised for a range-bound session today, with 25,900 serving as a critical support level, while 26,000 could act as immediate resistance.

Stocks in the News: Top Movers and Updates

Delta Corp

• The board approved a draft composite scheme for the demerger of its hospitality and real estate business, potentially unlocking value for shareholders.

KEC International

• Launched a QIP (Qualified Institutional Placement) to raise up to ₹4,500 crore, with the floor price set near Tuesday’s closing price.

Zee Entertainment

• Signed an agreement with Mukta Arts for the satellite and media rights of 37 films over six years, which could positively impact Zee’s earnings over the contract period.

HDFC Life

• To consider terms for a ₹2,000 crore bond issue on September 27, 2024, signaling the company’s expansion plans.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders

• Commenced production of the first multipurpose cargo vessel for Navi Merchants, Denmark, potentially boosting its revenue.

Solar Industries

• Received NCLT approval for the merger of Rajasthan Explosives with its unit Emul Tek Pvt.

Hariom Pipes

• Board approved raising up to ₹700 crore through equity or other securities, aiming to expand its operations.

Apollo Sindoori Hotels

• Mirae Asset Mutual Fund bought a 6.4% stake, valued at ₹278.02 crore, indicating institutional interest in the stock.

Cartrade Tech

• Highdell Investment exited by selling its 8.64% stake, amounting to ₹375.16 crore, creating volatility around the stock’s price movement.

Sectoral Analysis: Opportunities and Risks

Real Estate Stocks: Uncertainty Lingers

• The recent Group of Ministers meeting on real estate deferred key decisions on housing and land valuation, creating uncertainty in the sector. Investors should be cautious when investing in real estate stocks until more clarity emerges.

Energy and Power Sector

• Tata Power is under the spotlight following a fire incident at its Trombay plant, which could weigh on the stock’s performance in the near term. However, crude oil prices remaining steady could provide some relief for energy stocks.

Technology and Media

• Zee Entertainment and Mukta Arts deal for satellite and media rights is expected to boost Zee’s media revenues in the long term. Additionally, Cartrade Tech may experience short-term volatility following Highdell’s exit.

Metals and Commodities

• Nifty Metal index hit a two-month high, driven by gains in stocks like Tata Steel, Vedanta, and NMDC. The upward movement in global commodity prices could provide further support for metal stocks, making this a sector to watch closely.

FII and DII Activity

• Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) were net sellers on September 24, 2024, with total outflows amounting to ₹2,784.1 crore.
• Domestic Institutional Investors (DII), on the other hand, were net buyers, with inflows of ₹3,868.3 crore, reflecting strong domestic support for Indian equities.

The contrasting positions of FIIs and DIIs indicate that while foreign investors are cautious, domestic participants continue to show confidence in Indian markets.

Put-Call Ratio (PCR) Analysis

• Nifty PCR stands at 1.2815, suggesting a moderately bullish sentiment.
• Bank Nifty PCR is at 1.1548, indicating a more cautious approach for banking stocks.
• Fin Nifty and Midcap Nifty PCRs are 0.8536 and 1.0404, respectively, showing mixed sentiment across different market segments.

Conclusion: Market Outlook for September 25, 2024

As the Indian markets prepare for today’s trading session, a slight downward bias is expected due to weak cues from GIFT Nifty and potential consolidation in key indices like Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty. However, sectors such as metals, media, and commodities remain in focus due to positive momentum.

Investors should keep an eye on the key resistance and support levels in Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty, as well as stock-specific developments in companies like Delta Corp, KEC International, and Zee Entertainment. Institutional activity, especially the DII inflows, could provide support to the market, while FII outflows may limit gains.

Pre-market data points toward a mixed session with a potential for minor corrections or consolidation, but the underlying trend remains bullish for the medium term.